Ukrainian Aerospace: Motor Sich
- Дата выхода отчёта: 16 мая 2007 г.
- География исследования: Украина
- Период исследования: 2006 (актуализация по запросу)
- Язык отчёта: Английский
- Способ предоставления: электронный
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Содержание
1. INVESTMENT CASE
2. BUSINESS PROFILE
3. Executive summary
Motor Sich: On the edge of a strong up-cycle
Outlook for Motor Sich by sector
Helicopter segment: +70% by 2015
Airplane segment: +200% by 2016
New markets, More opportunities
Even a cautious outlook means great things
Valuation summary: MSICH implied price, USD
Acquisition target
4. Motor Sich: Key to Russia's aeronautic ambitions
Program to resurrect the Russian aviation sector
Global markets bode well
Higher demand growth from emerging markets
Passenger aircraft in hot demand
Cargo transportation: Growth leader
Helicopter demand: CAGR 8.5% over 4 years
Motor Sich's joint projects with Russia
TB3-117 and VK-2500 series engines: Fit most Russian helicopters
D-436 projects
Regional passenger jets
Be-200 Amphibian
D-18T engines: An-124-100M Ruslan
AI-222-25 engine: Yak-130
5. Getting it done - corporate strategies
All Russian assets go together
6. Partnering with EADS
EADS buys 10% of Irkut
Russia's response: VTB buys 6% of EADS
Major task: Targeting Motor Sich
Motor Sich: Not going to roll over easily
VK-2500: Motor Sich's golden ticket
What does the Russian Holding mean for Motor Sich?
‘Motor Sich acquired by the Russian Holding' scenario - implications for minorities
Upgrade in corporate governance
The buyer may opt for partial asset reallocation
No acquisition: ‘Survival-of-the-fittest' scenario
7. Self-sufficient player
D-36 engine for the An-74: Old, But still hot
TV3-117 VMA SBM1 engine for the Ukrainian An-140
Chinese projects: AI-25 family of engines
Cooperation with India
The MTA project
MS-400 engines: UAV project
A successful engine - the hen that lays golden eggs
Motor Sich after-market business capacity
Market is controlled by Motor Sich
Reincarnation of an engine
Electricity generation sets
Gas turbines
Other business directions
Consumer goods
Aviation company: Motor Sich Avia
8. DCF valuation
Impact of high operating leverage
Basic model assumptions
Common assumptions for the three scenarios:
Specific assumptions:
Terminal value assumptions:
Our approach is conservative
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
9. Peer valuation
Traded peers
10. Appendix: Pro-forma financial statements
CHARTS
Sector stock performance YTD
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE
Life stage of Motor Sich key engine projects
Revenue breakdown, 2006
Value breakdown, USD mln
DCF
Peers' market multiples (2007E)
Peer equity placements
Russian aircraft sales forecast
Projected Economic and Traffic Growth by region, CAGR 2007-2026
World airplane fleet evolution forecast (30 to 120 seat niche)
Air cargo traffic, Freight Ton Kilometers
Helicopters world demand forecast, units p.a.
Russian helicopters share on the world market
Russian civil helicopter fleet 1999-2015, units
Market response to EADS 10% acquisition of Irkut, USD
Motor Sich in Russian aviation production chain
Russian aircraft production plans and expected engine suppliers
Production interconnections
Motor Sich sales destinations
Cash flows from investment program in an engine, USD mln p.a.
Russian helicopters made before 2006, units
Motor Sich*: Operating leverage at work
ROIC dynamics in the aerospace industry
Operating model summary, USD mln
TABLES
MARKET INFORMATION
STOCK OWNERSHIP
MARKET MULTIPLES
KEY FINANCIALS, USD mln
Russian helicopter program, units
Regional passenger jet fleet of CIS countries
Motor Sich's estimated orders for new engines: 2007-2012
Global market demand for regional jets, units for the period
Regional jet deliveries by region, units for the period
Motor Sich's engines for Russian helicopters
An-148 and Tu-334 profile
Be-200 profile
An-124 profile
Yak-130 Profile
Summary: How Motor Sich engines fit the Russian aviation program, units
An-74 Profile
An-140 profile
Chinese trainer airplane profiles
Summary: Motor Sich projects without Russia
How we differ from Motor Sich management forecasts
DCF output, UAH mln, as of May, 15
Sensitivity analysis
Peer financials, USD mln
Peer multiples
Equity placements in aircraft business
Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
