Рекламные рынки в Украине и России находятся в стадии быстрого роста, показывая 49% и 31% среднего роста в 2004-2007 соответственно, в сравнении с 6% в странах Западной Европы. Мы ожидаем, что оба рынка вырастут вдвое к 2010-2011: расходы на рекламу в расчете на человека в Украине в прошлом году составили лишь 20% от аналогичного показателя в странах Центральной и Восточной Европы, в России данный показатель составил 50%.
United Media Holding, объединяющий группу компаний «Украинский Медиа Холдинг» в Украине и издательский дом "Популярная пресса , является одной из наибольших медиа групп на территории СНГ. Основные активы компании находятся в печатной прессе, радио и интернете. В мае 2008 года компания привлекла 45 млн долл США, разместив 15% акций среди портфельных инвесторов на Франфуртской бирже.
United Media Holding диверсифицирован с точки зрения присутствия в разных секторах медиа-рынка. Являясь наибольшим печатным домом в Украине, компания владеет второй по размеру сетью FM-радиостанций в стране. Интернет-бизнес компании представлен 23 вебсайтами.
Мы использовали модель DCF и сравнения со схожими компаниями для определения справедливой рыночной стоимости United Media Holding.
Англоязычная версия отчета
The advertising markets in both Ukraine and Russia are in a rapid growth stage, posting 49% and 31% CAGR respectively in 2004-07, compared to 6% on average for Western European countries. We expect both markets to double from their current sizes by 2010-11: per capita advertising expenditures in Ukraine last year were a mere 20% of the average in other Central and Eastern Europe countries, while Russia's was 50% lower.
United Media Holding, one of Ukraine's largest media groups with exposure to print, radio and Internet, raised USD 45 mln by placing a 15% stake with portfolio investors in May.
United Media Holding is diversified in terms of its media presence. It is Ukraine's largest publishing house with a xx% share of advertising in print media, and xx% of the national audience in 2007. It owns the second-largest FM radio network in the country, and is the leader on Kyiv's FM radio market. The company's Internet business is currently comprised of xx websites.
We use DCF and peer valuation methods to derive the fair value of United Media Holding.
1. Investment Case
2. Executive summary
Media market boom in the CIS
Exposure to the fast growing CIS media industry
UMH's profile
Expanding abroad
Diversification into TV and Internet is a top priority
3. Valuation
Valuation methods
DCF
Peer valuation
4. Media markets in Ukraine and Russia
Advertising: fuelling media revenues
Immense growth potential
Reshuffling the media ad market structure
Mid-term: threat to TV dominance in advertising
Digitalization of TV & radio to increase competition in the longer term
TV: the largest segment of ad market
Radio: an alternative way to reach a large audience
Internet: the fastest growing ad market segment
Case study: the Internet as the last shelter for alcohol & tobacco ads
Press advertising - growing ahead of the market
Copy sales: room for growth
Ukraine's market to double in the mid-term
Retail development - the major trigger for copy sales
5. Players and strategies
Ukraine
Russia
6. UMH's business
Company business segments
Business model
Diversification into non-publishing businesses
Investment plans for 2008
New publishing projects in Ukraine: benefits ahead
Expansion of UMH publications in the CIS markets
Profitability outlook
Legal structure
Management team
Risks
7. Financial Statements
8. Appendices
Appendix: Main publication titles
CHARTS
Share price performance, USD
Revenue breakdown, 2007
Per capita media ad spending, 2007
2007-10E CAGR in ad spending
Per capita media ad expenditures vs. per capita GDP, CEE**
Media ad market structure, Ukraine
Media ad market structure, Russia
Media ad market structure, World
Cost per thousand contacts (CPT) by media, USD, 2007
CPT in TV & magazines depending on size of target audience, USD, Ukraine
Percentage of households with access to digital TV, 2006*
TV advertising markets, USD mln
Daily audience reach by FM radio, %*
Internet advertising, USD mln
Internet penetration & advertising, 2007
Advertising expenditures by publication segment in Ukraine, USD mln
Ukrainian and Russian copy sales markets, USD mln
Press retail points per 1 ths of people
Share of supermarkets in press distribution, 2006
Print media market structure in Ukraine by publishers
Audience by TV channel in 2006-2007, audience 18+
Radio audience in Ukraine
Radio audience in Kyiv
TOP-4 internet resources in terms of advertising revenue
Print media market structure in Russia by publishers
UMH's business segments
Sales dynamics by segment, USD mln
Sales breakdown, 2007
UMH business segments
New title launches by publishing houses in 2006-07*
Gross ad revenues of Ukraine's Top-3 publishing houses, USD mln
Circulation by magazine segment in Russia, mln copies
Share of TV guide publishing houses in total ad revenues, Russia
Ukrainian sports websites, top-5 in last 30 days (May 26-June 25), mln unique users
Audience coverage by UMH radio stations, mln people
Expansion plan for points of sale network
UMH EBITDA by segment,
EBITDA dynamics for new publications, USD mln
Legal structure
TABLES
Market information*
Stock ownership
Key financials*, USD mln
Market multiples*
Media stocks with exposure to CIS markets
Advertising market forecasts
Revenue and EBITDA projections, USD mln
DCF model forecasts
DCF: Sensitivity analysis
Peer valuation summary
Time limitations of advertising legislation in Russia and Ukraine*
Major limitations of advertising legislation in Russia and Ukraine*
Ukraine: Main media players
Russia: Main media holdings
CapEx plans for 2008
Mapping UMH in Ukraine's press ad market
Income Statement Summary, USD mln*
Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln*
Cash Flow Statement, USD mln*
Exchange Rates, UAH/USD
Appendix: Main publication titles
