Ukrainian Electricity Distribution: RAB reform ahead
- Дата выхода отчёта: 21 августа 2007 г.
- География исследования: Украина
- Период исследования: 2006-2007 (актуализация по запросу)
- Язык отчёта: Английский
- Способ предоставления: электронный
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Содержание
1. Investment Case
2. STOCK MARKET
1.7x yoy increase in trading volumes
Spreads for most stocks decreased
Performance: Private companies are outsiders
3. PRIVATIZATION
Postponed to 2008
Insiders most likely to privatize
Methods of privatization
4. CORPORATE ISSUES
Dividend policy: State tightens its purse strings
Corporate conflicts: Court battles persist
5. DEBT ISSUES
Debt offsetting: No progress
How will outstanding debt be repaid?
Net debt adjustments
Debt differences: Breakthroughs at Energorynok
6. PROFITABILITY STUDIES
Key profit drivers
Reduction in excessive electricity losses: Driver of past performance
Tariff revision: Income driver for the mid-term
Network connection: A new profitable business direction?
Profitability convergence of Oblenergos
7. NEW TARIFF POLICY
Still in the works
A new vision of the RAB
An aggressive approach to estimating net asset value
More realistic approach to estimating net asset value
8. VALUATION
Rule of thumb for valuation: Beware of applying EV/Sales and EV/Electricity directly...
Investment program: Determining current margins
We advise to value by capacity
Russian peers: Sum-of-the-parts
Developed market peers
Applying discounts
Peer valuation summary
RAB as a benchmark
Valuation summary
A guide to Oblenergo valuation
Recommendations summary
Appendix 1:
Valuation summary for de-listed Oblenergos
Appendix 2: Peer summaries
Appendix 3
Appendix 4: Financial summary
CHARTS
Monthly trading volumes, USD mln
Trading volumes, Aug. 06-July 07, USD mln
Performance (mid-market), 52 weeks
Year-to-date
Sector's excessive electricity losses and earnings, USD mln
Portion of Oblenergos that raised their tariffs
EBITDA margins of different groups of Oblenergos
Fixed assets of Oblenergos, USD mln
Accumulated depreciation in Oblenergos' balance sheets:
Adjusted accumulated depreciation
Negative scale effect in Oblenergos, 2006 data
Investment program vs. EBITDA, USD mln
Oblenergo multiples' variation coefficients
Correlation matrix: Key EBITDA determinants, 2006 data
Correlation with replacement value
Valuation of Russian energy companies:
RAB-based valuation: Implied upsides
TABLES
Bid/Ask spread
Parameters of privatization via additional share issues: TGK-5 vs. DNEN
Dividend payment summary, USD mln
Accounts payable for Oblenergos with the highest debt, USD mln*
Net debt adjustment arithmetic, USD mln (as of Mar 31, 2007)
Oblenergos that are allowed to obtain 100% of cash flow by NERC algorithm*
Aggregated et income difference, current and new policy
Selected Oblenergos' implied net income vs. peers' (USD per MWh)
Aggregated net income difference, current and new policy
Oblenergos' possible allowed profit vs. developed market peers, USD/MWh
Distribution business multiples:
Sum-of the parts valuation
Peer multiples
Oblenergos: 2007 multiples and premiums/discounts to peers
Oblenergos' scoring
Implied upsides by international peers
Explanatory power of multiples
Valuation summary: Implied upsides
Implied prices, USD
Russian distribution and supply companies
Russian CHPPs
Developed market peers, USD mln
Key operating data and forecasts
Chernivtsioblenergo (CHEN)
Chernihivoblenergo (CHEON)
Cherkasyoblenergo (CHON)
Dnipooblenergo (DNON)
Donetskoblenergo (DOON)
Kharkivoblenergo (HAON)
Khmelnitskoblenergo (HMON)
Khersonoblenergo (HOEN)
Kirovogradoblenergo (KION)
Krymenergo (KREN)
Lvivoblenergo (LVON)
Mykolaivoblenergo (MYON)
Odesaoblenergo (ODEN)
Poltavaoblenergo (POON)
Prykarpatoblenergo (PREN)
Sumyoblenergo (SOEN)
Sevastopolenergo (SMEN)
Ternopiloblenergo (TOEN)
Vinnitsaoblenergo (VIEN)
Volynoblenergo (VOEN)
Zaporizhiaoblenergo (ZAON)
Zhytomiroblenergo (ZHEN)
Zakarpatoblenergo (ZOEN)
