Ukrainian Pipes
- Дата выхода отчёта: 21 сентября 2007 г.
- География исследования: Украина
- Период исследования: 2007 (актуализация по запросу)
- Язык отчёта: Английский
- Способ предоставления: электронный
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Содержание
1. Investment Summary
Outlook: Stable growth in the mid-term
Strong reported financials in 1H07
Targets revised upward, Upsides evaporated
Two BUYs
2. Stock market
Valuation summary
3. Interim results and forecast revisions
4. Strong demand vs. growing competition
Dependency on CIS exports increases
Demand: Favorable
ENERGY PIPES
NON-ENERGY PIPES
Supply: Competition tightens
RUSSIA
MIDDLE-EAST & ASIA
EUROPE
UKRAINE
Prices growth to slow down
5. Company profiles
5.1 Kominmet
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIO - table
Pipes Output, ths mt - chart
A likely acquisition target
Privat to divest Kominet
Production increase outperforms sector average
Product quality improves due to facilities upgrades
Reporting standards improve at a hobbling gait
Key forecast revisions
DCF model (Scenario 1: best case)
DCF model (Scenario 2: worst case)
5.2 Novomoskovsk Pipe
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIO - table
Pipes Output, ths mt - chart
Strong 1H07 results, Solid prospects
Profitability surged closer to industry leaders
2007 production forecast revised upward
Increasing capacity and improving product mix
Share buyback is possible
Focus on MD & SD pipes
Key forecast revisions
DCF model
5.3 Nyzhnyodniprovsky
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIO - table
Pipes Output, ths mt - chart
Weaker financials, Seeking new markets
Higher sales, lower margins
OHF to be idled: Profitability to decrease after 2009
Stable production growth in the mid-term
Penetrating into CIS and Middle Eastern markets
Preparing for Interpipe's IPO: Buyout offer
Key forecast revisions
DCF model
5.6 Dnipropetrovsk Pipe
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIO - table
Pipes Output, ths mt - chart
Higher competition threatens sales
Production dropped in 8M07
OCTG pipe production delayed until 2008
Shaky reported financials
Key forecasts
DCF model (Scenario 1: best case)
DCF model (Scenario 2: worst case)
5.7 Khartsyzk Pipe
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIO - table
Pipes Output, ths mt - chart
Bright mid-term, bumpy road beyond
Sales to Russia secured only in mid-term
Nord Stream deliveries: To be or not to be
Diversified markets needed to meet production targets
New up-to-date LD pipe production line adds optimism
Key forecast revisions
DCF model (Scenario 1: best case)
DCF model (Scenario 2: worst case)
6. Appendices
Appendix 1: Comparative valuation
Appendix 2: Key peer financials
Appendix 3: Russian oil & gas projects
7. Analyst Certification
CHARTS
Stock performance, YTD
Ukrainian Pipe Index, PFTS & Traded Stocks YTD
Ukrainian pipe index vs PFTS
Trading vol. vs price growth, YTD
Trading vol. and PFTS index
Nyzhnyodniprovsky Pipe - Price vs 100 days moving average
Nyzhnyodniprovsky Pipe - Spread, %
Nyzhnyodniprovsky Pipe - Monthly trading volumes, ths mln
Khartsyzk Pipe - Price and 100 days moving average
Khartsyzk Pipe - Spread, %
Khartsyzk Pipe - Monthly trading volumes, ths mln
Novomoskovsk Pipe - Price vs 100 days moving average
Novomoskovsk Pipe - Spread, %
Novomoskovsk Pipe - Monthly trading volumes, ths mln
Dnipropetrovsk Pipe - Price and 100 days moving average
Dnipropetrovsk Pipe - Spread, %
Dnipropetrovsk Pipe - Monthly trading volumes, ths mln
Kominmet - Price vs 100 days moving average
Kominmet - Spread, %
Kominmet - Monthly trading volumes, ths mln
Upsides and recommendations
1H07 Sales growth vs EBITDA margin
Ukrainian pipes - Sales by region, ths mt
Ukrainian pipes - Export by category, ths mt
Ukrainian pipe export breakdown by type and country
GDP growth 2006-2010, % CAGR
Oil and gas consumption in APR
Construction growth, %
Industrial production growth, %
Russian pipe production
Monthly Ukrainian pipe production, ths mt
Ukrainian export pipe prices, USD/mt
CIS pipe price growth in 7M07, yoy
Breakdown of Kominmet's product mix
Sales and EBITDA margin
Selling vs. domestic pipe prices, USD/mt*
Novomoskovsk Pipe production, ths mt
Ukrainian pipe production growth in 8M07
Breakdown of products
Export structure in 2006
Effect of OCTG pipe production on product portfolio
Russian demand for LD welded pipes, ths mt
Russian LD welded pipes production vs. capacity, ths mt
Khartsyzk monthly output, ths mt
Khartsyzk target for 2H07, ths mt
TABLES
Target price & recommendation revisions:
Forecast revisions
Upcoming events to change sector in mid-term
Russian pipe projects
Asian greenfield projects
Growth in Ukrainian pipe destinations, 5M07
Investment projects
Privat's steel assets
Kominmet - SCENARIO 1 (best case: 70% probability)
Kominmet - SCENARIO 2 (worst case: 30% probability)
DCF model (Scenario 1: best case)
Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
DCF model (Scenario 2: worst case)
Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
Novomoskovsk Pipe financials
Key forecast revisions
DCF model
Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
Nyzhnyodniprovsky Pipe financials
Key forecast revisions
DCF model
Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
Dnipropetrovsk Pipe - SCENARIO 1 (best case: 70% probability)
Dnipropetrovsk Pipe - SCENARIO 2 (worst case: 30% probability)
DCF model (Scenario 1: best case)
Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
DCF model (Scenario 2: worst case)
Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
Khartsyzk Pipe - SCENARIO 1 (best case: 60% probability)
Khartsyzk Pipe - SCENARIO 2 (worst case: 40% probability)
DCF model (Scenario 1: best case)
Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
DCF model (Scenario 2: worst case)
Sensitivity analysis: Implied share price, USD
TMK as a Benchmark
Russian Peers
GEM Peers
Developed Market Peers
Appendix 2: Key peer financials
Appendix 3: Russian oil & gas projects
