В течение первого квартала 2008, украинские банки продолжали расти теми же уверенными темпами, что и в прошлом году.
Активы банковского сектора выросли на 70% в годовом исчислении к 1 апреля 2008. Кредитные портфели банков увеличивались с теми же темпами, в первую очередь за счет стремительного роста потребительских кредитов. Рост депозитов населения увеличился до 53% в годовом исчислении, акционерный капитал банков рос теми же темпами. Чистая прибыль отрасли выросла в полтора раза в годовом исчислении.
Ключевыми факторами роста прибылей остаются процентный доход, комиссионный доход и дальнейшее улучшение эффективности (отношение затрат к доходу упало в годовом исчислении).
Тем не менее, у украинских банков на повестке дня есть два главных вопроса:
- Усложнение доступа к иностранным заемным средствам, заставивший большинство украинских банков отложить планы по зарубежному заимствованию
- Национальный банк Украины, сжавший предложение денежной массы для сдерживания растущей инфляции. База фондирования банков уменьшилась вдвое за последние шесть месяцев.
В текущих рыночных условиях мы считаем, что в хорошем положении находятся банки, которые принадлежат иностранным владельцам и продолжают подключать внешние рынки для финансирования (уменьшая вдвое стоимость финансирования). В условиях уменьшения процентного дохода, мы также отмечаем банки с большей долей комиссионных доходов и имеющие потенциал для улучшения эффективности.
Англоязычная версия отчета
During the first three months of 2008, Ukrainian banks continued growing at the solid pace they posted last year.
Banking sector assets grew xx% yoy to reach USD xx bln as of April 1, 2008. Banks' loan portfolios expanded by xx% yoy to USD xx bln, mostly driven by a xx% yoy increase in retail loans to USD xx bln. Growth in customers' deposits accelerated to xx% yoy to USD xx bln and banks' equity rose by xx% yoy to reach USD xx bln. The sector's net income increased by xx% yoy to USD xx bln.
The key drivers for the earnings growth remained net interest income (+xx% yoy to USD xx bln), fee & commission income (+xx% yoy to USD xx bln) and further efficiency improvement (Cost/Income fell to xx% from xx% a year ago).
However, Ukrainian banks face two main challenges:
- Tougher access to the international borrowing pool, which has forced most Ukrainian banks to postpone plans to raise foreign debt
- The National Bank of Ukraine, as it clamped down on the money supply to curb accelerating inflation, sucked excessive liquidity from the market. Banks' funding bases halved over the last 6M
Under current market conditions, we think foreign-owned banks, which are continuing to tap external markets for financing and halving their borrowing costs, are best positioned. In an environment of falling NIMs, we also favor lenders with strong fee & commission generation and room for efficiency improvement.
We apply Gordon Growth Model and peer valuation methods to value Ukrainian banks.
1. Investment thesis
Investment summary
Valuation summary
Ukrainian banks: cheapest in a long time
M&A: right time to buy a bank in Ukraine
Stock market monitor
2. Market overview
Strong 1Q08, but growth will abate
Two major challenges
Growth in funding costs threaten margins
Who will lead in 2008?
Efficency & Commisions serve as stepping stones
3. Bank profiles
3.1 Bank Forum
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
GROWTH RATES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Gordon growth model - tables
3.2 Megabank
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
GROWTH RATES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Gordon growth model - tables
3.3 Nadra Bank
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
GROWTH RATES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Gordon growth model - tables
3.4 Raiffeisen Bank Aval
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
GROWTH RATES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Gordon growth model - tables
3.5 Rodovid Bank
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
GROWTH RATES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Gordon growth model - tables
3.6 Ukrgazbank
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
GROWTH RATES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Gordon growth model - tables
3.7 Ukrinbank
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
GROWTH RATES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Gordon growth model - tables
3.8 Ukrsotsbank
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
GROWTH RATES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
4. Gordon growth model - tables
Appendices
Appendix A: Comparative valuation
Appendix B: Ukrainian banking sector evolution
Appendix C: Traded banks 2007 summary
Appendix D: 2007 financials for top-60 Ukrainian banks
CHARTS
Concorde Capital's Ukrainian Banking Index*
Ukrainian Banking Index vs. MSCI EM Banks, MSCI Europe Banks & PFTS
Ukrainian banks' aggregate P/B
P/B multiples: Ukraine vs. EMEA
P/B and Book Value growth
P/E and Earnings growth
Raiffeisen Bank Aval. Stock performance. Spread, % Spread, %
Ukrsotsbank. Stock performance. Spread, % Spread, %
Nadra. Stock performance. Spread, % Spread, %
Forum. Stock performance. Spread, % Spread, %
Rodovid Bank. Stock performance. Spread, % Spread, %
Ukrgazbank. Stock performance. Spread, % Spread, %
Megabank. Stock performance. Spread, % Spread, %
Ukrinbank. Stock performance. Spread, % Spread, %
Ukrainian banks' balances on NBU accounts, USD bln
NBU's net refinancing transactions & O/N UAH KIEBOR
Ukrainian banks: Foreign borrowings, USD mln
Customers' deposit rates and spreads
3M KIEBOR/UAH
Ukrainian banks: Net interest margin aggregate
Ukrainian banks: Cost of foreign borrowings*
Fee & commissions/Total revenue, 2007
C/I change vs. Net income growth, 2007
Cost/Income, 2007
TABLES
Foreign banks' announced M
Key ratios ‘08E
Key financials, 2007, USD mln
M&A deals in Ukrainian banking, 2007-08
Foreign banks' announced M&A plans in Ukraine
Ukrainian banks' aggregate statistics
Syndicated loans in 2008
Ukrainian banks: Implied prices by peers
Valuation multiples summary
Detailed peer financials, USD mln
Appendix B: Ukrainian banking sector evolution
Appendix C: Traded banks 2007 summary
Appendix D: 2007 financials for top-60 Ukrainian banks
&A plans in Ukraine
Ukrainian banks' aggregate statistics
Syndicated loans in 2008
